Forecasted Shortfall on India–UAE Routes Could Leave Millions of Journeys Unserved by 2035

This article examines a study projecting that 27% of India–UAE air travel demand may go unmet by 2035 and what this could mean for passengers, airports and ground transfers.

Key findings at a glance

The analysis forecasts that, if current bilateral capacity restrictions remain unchanged, approximately 27% of projected India–UAE air travel demand — roughly 54.5 million passenger journeys between 2026 and 2035 — could go unserved. The shortfall is especially acute on the Abu Dhabi–India corridor, where around 13.2 million journeys may be affected.

Snapshot table

Why demand is outpacing capacity

Several structural trends explain the widening gap between demand and scheduled seats. Over the past decade and a half, the share of households with the means to fly has expanded significantly — from about 24% in 2010 to 40% in 2024 — adding nearly 300 million potential travellers. Rising incomes, expanding trade links and stronger tourism flows underpin a forecast annual travel growth rate of 7.2%.

Supply-side constraints

Currently, load factors on major India–UAE routes exceed 80%, indicating limited spare capacity. The study notes that under baseline assumptions, available seat capacity could be exhausted as early as 2026, making it difficult for airlines to accommodate incremental demand without policy or scheduling changes.

Potential economic and social impacts

Limited flight capacity can ripple across economies and local services.

• GDP and jobs: With current constraints, corridor GDP growth may be around 3% CAGR, but expanding capacity could raise that to between 5.5% and 7%, creating hundreds of thousands of jobs.
• 観光だ： Fewer seats translate to fewer tourists, pressuring hotels, attractions and ground transport providers.
• Trade and investment: Less frequent connectivity can raise costs for business travel and logistics, reducing trade efficiency.

Case in point

Doubling seat capacity on the Abu Dhabi–India route could generate an additional USD 7.2 billion in GDP and sustain more than 170,000 jobs annually over five years, according to the analysis. Longer-term productivity gains from improved connectivity could reach up to USD 9 billion per year by 2035.

What this means for passengers and transfers

When flights are scarce or more expensive, demand for reliable ground transfers to airports and between cities typically rises. That affects everything from airport taxi queues and ride-hailing wait times to surge pricing for private transfers. Travellers with exact schedules or tight connections will feel the pressure first, while companies offering chauffeur services, airport shuttles and long-distance transfers may see increased bookings and the need to scale fleets.

Practical implications for booking

To have a mind to travel smoothly in a constrained market, passengers should consider booking transfers earlier, choosing providers that show comprehensive details like vehicle make and model, driver credentials and transparent fares. Pre-booked airport transfers can reduce stress during peak booking windows and help avoid last-minute premium fares.

Policy choices and industry responses

Decisions by regulators and airlines will determine whether potential demand is met. Easing bilateral seat limits, optimizing schedules, and encouraging new entrants could increase capacity and unlock economic benefits. Meanwhile, ground transport companies should plan for growth in airport and city transfer demand by maintaining modern fleets and flexible booking systems.

What travellers can do now

1. Book flights and transfers well in advance when possible.
2. Compare transfer options by vehicle type, price and provider rating.
3. Consider alternative airports or travel dates to avoid peak constraints.

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In summary, the projected 27% shortfall on India–UAE routes could leave millions of journeys unserved unless capacity constraints are addressed. That outcome would influence fares, airport congestion and demand for transfers and taxis, affecting how travellers plan trips and book ground services. Whether you’re arranging an airport pickup, a city-to-city private transfer, or a seat in a shared shuttle, transparent options that show exact vehicle, driver and fare details will matter more than ever. GetTransfer.com offers a global, user-friendly way to book personalized transfers, trips, and deliveries, giving travellers clear pricing, verified drivers and a wide range of vehicle choices to suit every budget and schedule. The platform’s transparency and convenience make it easier to plan around shifting air capacity and ensure timely, comfortable travel.