Experts Warn – Downturn in International Travel to the US May Last Beyond Summer

Plan for a slow rebound now by adjusting capacity and offering flexible tickets until february next year. The downturn in international travel to the US may stretch beyond midsummer, so operators should act early to protect revenue and keep customers engaged.

What drives this pause includes a changing climate for demand, higher fuel costs, and slower visa processing. According to annual data from federal sources, international arrivals to the US remained below pre-pandemic levels through february, with notable gaps in markets such as indonesia and other major outbound countries. The aviation sector trimmed long-haul schedules by several percentage points, and carriers report that the recovery might take years rather than months.

deborah, head of the federal travel office, says that agencies should deliver flexibility and clear refunds to travelers. She adds that residents planning trips should look for a place with value, such as destinations with robust domestic activity like vegas, and avoid tying travel plans to a single carrier that could cancel flights. Offices and carriers can collaborate to deliver updated advisories, share seat inventories, and keep the return timeline realistic for next year.

For travelers seeking to minimize risk, here are concrete steps: verify visa wait times and travel advisories; choose annual rate tickets with free changes; select destinations with flexible accommodation policies; bundle flights and hotels only with refundable terms; plan personal itineraries that can adapt to changes; and keep a plan B for a return window, for example, a backup route via a place with flexible connectivity if a direct flight is canceled. Record your preferences in your travel notebook, and keep the office contacts handy for updates.

Projected duration: How long could the US travel slowdown extend after summer?

Key dynamics shaping the timeline

Plan a recovery start in September and expect it to extend into autumn, with demand gradually filling the season’s gaps as confidence returns and trip costs stabilize.

Data surfaced from national surveys shows foreign arrivals remain sluggish, with midsummer activity often dancing around limited routes and closed borders, while domestic travel carries a softer load.

Experts confirm a slow, uneven recovery, and the forecast confirms that the US travel slowdown could extend into the post-summer period if restrictive policies linger. The government can influence the pace through visa processing and border controls, and competition among destinations remains intense, with france and brazil cited as key markets in regional campaigns. One briefing gave policymakers a clearer sense of path forward.

Statistical models using traveler flows from foreign markets point to a gradual uptick beginning in September, with a plan that starts by restoring confidence and ends by lifting transaction friction for both tourists and operators until demand stabilizes. Hosting programs and national campaigns that feature events or a contest can help sustain interest and attract attendees from elsewhere.

To strengthen the recovery, operators should work to diversify markets, pull supply toward elsewhere regions, and fill schedules with flexible booking options that welcome foreign travelers until demand stabilizes. Maintaining connections to the global network–france, brazil and other hubs–helps, while data-informed promotions target the rest of the world.

In sum, the duration of the slowdown depends on policy clarity and market signals; with coordinated actions, the downturn could ease by late autumn, but firms should plan for continued softness through the season and into early winter.

Filling the void: strategies to offset the loss of Canadian tourists

Launch a targeted cross-border package with Canadian carriers and rail partners, bundling flexible dates, price protection for 60 days, and loyalty perks tied to sporting and cultural events. This approach addresses what travelers wanted and can be rolled out quickly across the york region and northern Ontario. research and analytics surfaced a slowdown in Canadian arrivals after spring, marking unwanted, unwelcome shifts that arrived as occupancy and bookings slipped. This is not the only lever; other measures complement it. The plan aims to convert missed opportunities into steady flows, with a clear sign of recovery as bookings climb and loyal customers return. The jarosh council and tena endorse the program, aligning it with association services and regional tourism efforts.

Practical steps and partnerships

The rollout consists of three parts: pricing and packages, targeted marketing, and enhanced on-ground services. analytics will guide segmentation, focusing on trips that arrived in northern markets and events in the york corridor. After identifying high-potential segments, craft offers that are time-bound and transferable to partner networks. Which channels perform best? Use a simple landing page and dedicated hotline to reduce friction; align content with the association’s standards and the council’s promotions to ensure consistency. This approach is pulling partners from across sectors, tourism boards, and operators to accelerate bookings after a slow season. Past campaigns were mixed; what worked in one region were not universal, so we will test and adapt. Always adjust based on analytics.

To sustain momentum, maintain flexible cancellation terms and layered incentives for long-stay trips, family visits, and business delegations. Monitor arrivals, missed opportunities, and signs of rebound on a real-time analytics dashboard, ensuring the northern and york markets stay connected to the rest of the country. Strengthen on-site sporting event tie-ins, expand sporting and cultural services at key gateways, and improve loyalty integration with local associations and councils. By coordinating with the jarosh council and tena partners, this plan can deliver long-term growth, with analytics surfaced new opportunities and keeping loyal visitors engaged. This creates a long horizon for sustainable growth.

Forecasts for US inbound travelers by region: what to expect

Plan now: diversify outreach by region, treat canada and argentina as anchors, and offer flexible booking windows for fall. A number of factors indicate improvement is possible later in the year, as approvals rise. Forecast inbound ranges this year: canada 3.6–4.0 million; latin america (including argentina) 6.0–6.6 million; europe 4.0–4.4 million; asia-pacific 2.1–2.5 million.

In North America, canada-origin travelers remain a key part of inbound, driven by loyal family visits and lake-area getaways. Expect 0.9–1.1 million inbound from canada in the next quarter, supported by improved immigration processing and faster approvals. These parts of the inbound mix will place more emphasis on consistent demand across weekends and holidays throughout the year. Those on the white list benefit from faster entry, a small but meaningful improvement for loyal travelers.

Europe faces a downturn in the near term, with 3.9–4.4 million inbound travelers forecast this year. Leisure and business trips may pause on some routes, but an uptick could occur late in the year as airline capacity grows and approvals increase. In Asia-Pacific, the downturn might persist into Q3, with 2.1–2.5 million inbound; a swing in travel patterns could emerge if visa rules loosen and flights return, saying the broader trend remains cautious, and activity on other regions may lag behind; this might help.

Latin America, including argentina, shows resilience due to shorter trips and lower travel costs; forecast 2.9–3.5 million inbound in this region; mexico and brazil lead, while unwanted delays during peak season might arise elsewhere, and some travelers may struggle with visa requirements.

As kaler notes, the improvement will depend on coordinated efforts by the organization across regions, with approvals as a key indicator. Marketers should emphasize flexible terms, loyalty rewards, and targeted offers for canada and argentina to maintain momentum as a gift to customers. This approach might mitigate an unwanted downturn in other regions and keep traveler confidence high throughout the year.

Regional impacts: Western Europe, Asia, and Africa–timeline and implications

Recommendation: implement targeted capacity adjustments and flexible fare options now to stabilize traffic in Western Europe, Asia, and Africa. A regional director said the changes should be introduced without delay, including plane capacity, pricing, and partnerships. The association’s statistical finding points to traffic declines mainly in the middle of the month, with losses continuing throughout the pandemic recovery. Meanwhile, operators should explore cross-border options via corridors like the niagara corridor and keep the door open for joint ventures that support travel through peak periods. This plan includes proactive rebooking, dynamic pricing, and targeted marketing to reduce losing revenue and maintain momentum across markets included in this study.

Western Europe: timeline and implications

Timeline: declines began earlier this year, with a sharper drop through the middle of the year and a plateau in the early summer month. Among Western European markets, denmark showed relative resilience, yet overall traffic remained below pre-pandemic levels. The finding indicates mainly leisure and visiting-friends travel was hit hardest, while business traffic faded more slowly. Implications: carriers face continuing revenue pressure and must adjust capacity, focus on high-margin routes, and postpone nonessential expansions until demand stabilizes. We recommend targeted campaigns to amateur travelers and fans heading to championships, while maintaining flexible bookings that can be re-routed if conditions worsen. Partnerships with regional associations and airports can help sustain traffic, with a focus on bridging gaps via door-to-door itineraries and cross-border connections. Presidency guidance supports keeping critical links open and maintaining safe operations, while avoiding abrupt service cuts.

Asia and Africa: timeline and implications

Timeline: in Asia, growth held steady in some markets but turned softer for US routes during the middle months; in Africa, demand remained subdued with a slower rebound after the pandemic. Earlier signals suggested a stronger rebound; now, traffic from these regions has lagged behind Western Europe. Implications: travel restrictions and health protocols continue to shape demand, requiring careful targeting of marketing and pricing, plus greater use of travel bundles that include domestic segments. The brazil market stands as a reference point for price sensitivity among emerging markets, and planners should monitor nearby corridors to maintain traffic. Actions: expand pilot programs with regional associations, keep options flexible, and be ready to postpone nonessential departures when demand weakens. Ensure plane capacity aligns with real demand, and keep the niagara-like cross-border flows coordinated with local partners.

Practical actions for hotels, airlines, and destinations to adapt now

Dont wait for a rebound. Implement a 14-day flexible cancellation policy, clearly published on your site and OTA profiles, and reward loyalty with favorable rebooking terms. Since traveler confidence remains volatile, pair this with three-tier capacity planning and proactive communications to reduce friction at arrival.

Operational actions for hotels and airlines

• Adopt a joint capacity model with management and station partners, using a three-scenario forecast (best, base, worst) and updating it weekly to protect occupancy and load factor.
• Offer crafted packages to boost loyalty: include breakfast, express check-in, late checkout, and loyalty point bonuses; aim to lift average stay value and include an annual tier upgrade for loyal guests.
• Publish clear arrival guidance to guests: share recommended arrival windows, airport or rail station pickup options, and pre-check requirements so guests can arrive smoothly at the station or airport.
• Increase transparency about hygiene and cleanliness with visible metrics; publish results from annual audits and third-party reviews, using Friedland and Jarosh as internal references for best practices.
• Improve staff resilience: plan for absence by cross-training teams, creating flexible shifts, and maintaining contingency rosters; left roles are covered by trained backups managed by a dedicated management team.
• Engage organized groups: schedule Thursday briefings with organizers and the association to share updates, collect feedback, and align on actions; this cadence keeps momentum and accountability.
• Strengthen channel communications to reduce the chance of overbooking and packed flights; use real-time alerts for changes and rebookings to streamline work flow and protect the guest experience.
• Track reservation momentum: monitor the number of booked stays and respond quickly with rebooking credits to preserve american and western market share and protect loyalty numbers.
• Coordinate with station operations to ensure arrivals are met with clear directions and staffing levels that reflect anticipated volume; a coordinated approach minimizes delays and improves guest satisfaction.

Destination actions

• Coordinate with national associations and organizers to publish a unified recovery plan that prioritizes three core markets and supports american and western travelers; include the president’s outlook and quarterly reports to keep stakeholders informed.
• Diversify outreach across countries by tailoring content for key audiences and tracking the number of visitors from each market; annual targets should be reviewed every quarter and adjusted based on performance.
• Enhance arrival and transit experiences at major hubs by simplifying customs, transport options, and wayfinding; provide clear guidance to reduce absence of staff and avoid packed queues.
• Launch joint campaigns with airlines and hotels to promote bundled experiences from the station to local attractions; include logistics from arrival to check-in to minimize friction for travelers arriving from overseas.
• Involve industry voices such as Lindy and Donald from organizers panels to review progress and identify practical improvements; include Jarosh and Friedland in quarterly case studies to illustrate effective actions and lessons learned.